Winning on the Road

GEORGIA +2.5 @ Louisiana State

Georgia is 7-0 straight up and against the spread when I pick them dating back to last year.

Georgia is an amazing 27-4 in road games under March Richt. (Editor's note: Not counting the annual "neutral field" world's largest outdoor cocktail party in Jacksonville.)

This is a team that is still looking to pull it all together and break out and the focus that comes with going on the road in the SEC may be just what the doctor ordered.

LSU has shown a vulnerability to big plays by fast playmakers (see Florida game) and Georgia certainly has a couple of those in Knowshon and AJ Green.

LSU may be a bit tired and battered coming off two straight very tough road games while Georgia’s last two have been not-as-close-as-the-score-seems wins at home versus Tennessee and Vandy.

The biggest key to this game is LSU’s lack of a solid QB and Georgia will take advantage by working in some man coverage and stacking the box on run downs and blitzing on pass downs.

Look for Georgia to win this by 6-10 points and build momentum heading into the huge showdown with the Gators next week.

MINNESOTA pick ‘em @ Purdue

Vegas obviously still does not respect the #25 Golden Gophers, but I will show them some love.

The Gophers are 6-1 and coming off a bye week after winning on the road (@ Illinois) by 7 in their last game.

This is a Gopher team with a stout D and playing with confidence. Their only loss was @ Ohio State.

Purdue, meanwhile, is 2-5 (0-3 in the Big Ten) and has lost their last 4 games all by at least 13 points.

AUBURN +3.5 @ West Virginia (Thursday)

This is a game that I identified before the season as a good bet and am sticking with it. Sure Auburn has been way worse than expected, but so has W Virginia.

WVU has played a very weak schedule and has not done very will against it.

Ignore 1-AA Villanova game and WVU has lost to the only two teams it has faced with winning records (4-3 E Carolina and 4-3 Colorado) and has beaten 3 awful teams with a combined 5-16 record (Marshall, Rutgers, and Syracuse).

West Virginia simply has not been able to carry over its strong offense without Rich Rod and Steve Slaton and is averaging 17 points per game against the pretty weak 5 just mentioned.

Auburn has a fast, tough, SEC D that will be the best West Virginia has faced and will bring everyone to the line as WVU cannot even threaten the pass.

It seems more likely than not that Pat White will get knocked out of this game (he missed the last game with a head injury).

p>Both teams are desperate for a win and have coaches under pressure, but you have to give a huge coaching edge in this game to Tubs versus in-over-his-head Bill Stewart.

That coaching edge should translate into Auburn having made better adjustments in the extra time leading up to this game than WVU.

West Virginia is at home and is typically very tough in Morgantown, but the fans have started to turn on the coach and team a bit and actively booed during the last game.

Take the gift three and a half but Auburn wins this game.

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