SEC Dominance

GEORGIA +6 v. Florida (JAX)

This is the biggest SEC game of the year and has all the makings of a high-scoring classic.

We all know about Georgia’s team celebration last year and that Florida took it hard. I don’t think that has any impact at all this year.  The only thing from last year that matters is that Georgia seemed to shake the decade-and-a-half psych-out that the Gators had on them.

Both of these teams are very similar:

• Both have fast Ds that have not dominated as they might have hoped.
• Both have star QBs and big play receivers.

 

The biggest difference I see is that the Dawgs have probably the best RB in the nation in Moreno while Florida has a couple of fast but undersized freshman.

I see Georgia’s D actually matching up pretty well with the Gators as the strength of the Georgia D is speed.

Since the loss of DT Owens, Georgia has been vulnerable to a power run game (see: Alabama or LSU) but Florida does not bring that to the table.

Georgia will be the fastest defense Florida has seen and may surprise them to find R Curran or R Jones waiting for them at the corner.

The real key to this game is that Stafford seemed to take it to the next level against LSU last week where he repeatedly audibled Georgia into big plays and converted big third downs.

Look for Stafford to take advantage of Florida’s over-aggressiveness as he did against LSU and to pull out a win for the Dawgs in the 4th quarter.

LSU -25 v. Tulane

LSU is an angry team and fan base looking to take out their frustrations on someone, and along comes Tulane into Death Valley for a night game.LSU has not had any trouble scoring at home, putting up an average of 39 per game.  Their biggest weakness on offense, freshman QB Lee, should not be exposed by the Green Wave.

Tulane is 2-5, has lost 3 straight despite not playing anyone very good, and is ranked #109 by CBSportsline. In their last game they were hammered 42-17 at home by Rice and their best player (RB Anderson, 4th in NCAA in rushing) was injured for the season. Most embarrassingly, Tulane lost by 31 to lowly Army earlier in the year.

Not sure what Vegas is thinking on this one, LSU should cover easily and may double the line.

ARKANSAS +7 v. Tulsa

Tulsa averages over 50 points per game and is undefeated and ranked, but they have played probably the worst schedule in the country – zero BCS conference teams and only one I-A team with a winning record (5-3 Rice).

In their last road game, Tulsa squeaked by 1-8 SMU by 6 points.  It should also be noted that Tulsa has a short turnaround here after playing on Sunday night.

Arkansas is not a good SEC team, but they have a lot more power and speed than anyone Tulsa has faced and sport the #1 rusher in the SEC in M Smith. After an ugly start, the Hogs have been very competitive in their last 3 SEC games (1-2, all decided by 3 or less) and almost beat top-25-worthy Ole Miss last week.

 

I like Arkansas’ chances of winning this at home, but getting a touchdown is super nice.