Rated for 2009

ATLANTA - Arkansas, coming off a 5-7 season, faces the toughest schedule in the country and gets no respect in the preseason voting at #42 in the AP poll and #39 in the coaches’ poll. But Coach Petrino has shown he knows how to win big in college.

Underrated – Arkansas

Last year Petrino turned former SEC whipping boy Casey Dick, into an overachiever who finished second in the SEC in passing yards per game.

This year, Petrino gets huge (6’7”, 250 lb.) Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett to play quarterback and Mallet could make a Jevan Snead-like impact in his first year.

Look for the Razorbacks to have one of the best dual-threat offenses in the SEC combining Mallet with star running back Michael Smith and a defense that improved down the stretch last year.

Even with road games at Florida, ‘Bama, LSU, and Mississippi and a schedule rotation including the three strongest returning teams from the SEC East, I predict one or two major upsets and a respectable bowl bid.

Overrated – Oklahoma State

I get it; the Cowboys have 3 stars on offense and will score a lot of points.

Still, this team does not deserve the top 10 rankings it is receiving in the AP poll, much less being seen as the fifth best team overall in the Vegas Spread Index.

Vegas may be right about the Cowboys’ ability to match up with cupcakes, but just being good on one side of the ball will not get it done against the good teams on their schedule.

OSU returns an experienced D, but these are the same guys that got torched in all four of their big games last year, giving up an average of 47 points per game against the only good teams on their schedule: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oregon in the Holiday bowl.

Not surprisingly, OSU lost all 4 games. Expect similar results this season.

Underrated – North Carolina State

Pollsters have North Carolina State ranked 39th in the country and fifth in the ACC for 2009.

I have a buy-rating on the Wolfpack for the long term, and believe they are ready to get it done this season.

Coach Tom O’Brien has proven that he can win big in the ACC at Boston College and now he has a better recruiting base to draw on at NC State.

The star of the Wolfpack is sophomore QB Russell Wilson. Starting down the stretch last year as a freshman, Wilson threw 17 TDs to just one INT in leading the ‘Pack to wins in its last 4 ACC games.

A major strength of NC State this season is that they have eight seniors and one junior starting on their offensive and defensive lines. The ‘Pack also has eight home games on the schedule including nonconference matchups against South Carolina and Pittsburg for gaining national respect.

Look for the Wolfpack to win these two nonconference tests at home and challenge for the ACC Atlantic crown. NC State must travel to Tallahassee on Halloween night, but the ‘Noles are a beatable team that has lost four games per season since 2004.

There is a power vacuum in the ACC that the Wolfpack may just jump in and fill – look for a BCS bid for this program in the next couple years.

Overrated: Auburn

What basis is the media using for ranking Auburn ahead of South Carolina, South Florida, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Arkansas?

• Their 5-7 record from last year?
• Their losses to Arkansas and Vandy in 2008?
• The Tigers’ dominating performance in their only road win, a 3-2 shootout at Mississippi State?
• Replacing Tommy Tuberville’s 110-60 career coaching record and 64.7% winning percentage with Gene Chizik’s 5–19 and 20.8%?

Auburn is a strong football name in the South and around the country and it does not seem like folks have realized what bad shape the program is in today.

This is a team that had a pitiful offense last year and only won two SEC games.

Auburn does not appear to have any playmakers at the skill positions, lacks depth, and has no idea who its QB will be.

Worse still, Alabama has quickly shot past the Tigers on the field and in recruiting and Auburn will find it hard to rebuild recruiting against Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee as well as the Tide.

The switch from an established, solid SEC coach in Tuberville to Gene Chizik is not likely to fix the situation.

I do not see a winning SEC season in Auburn’s near future.

Underrated: Baylor

Baylor has not been to a bowl game in 14 seasons (the longest such streak for a BCS team) and has been simply dreadful since the Big 12 started in 1994. In fact, Baylor has never finished higher than 5th place in the six-team Big XII South.

However, Baylor was a respectable program back in the days of the Southwest Conference and is showing signs of heading back in that direction.

The Bears are led by sophomore QB Robert Griffin, who has folks in Waco excited about his combination of Vince Young and Michael Vick-like skills. (Griffin is a world-class hurdler and in high school was named the 2007 Gatorade Texas Boys Track & Field Athlete of Year).

Last year Griffin had 15 rush TDs, 13 pass TDs, and just 3 INTs as a freshman.

Baylor faces the third hardest schedule in the country including the Big XII South gauntlet of UT, OK, OSU, TT and A&M plus Missouri and Nebraska from the North and travelling out of conference to play Wake Forest and Connecticut.

Baylor will score a few big upsets of Big 12 heavyweights and go to a bowl game, if not this year, certainly before Griffin is done.

Overrated – Florida

The Gators look to be a great team again, but I don’t see them winning back-to-back national championships.

The SEC is just too hard for a team everyone is gunning for and UF will miss Percy Harvin and suffer from their lack of a traditional running game.

I will take Texas to win the national championship and Colt McCoy to win the Heisman.

(Editor’s note: How many weeks until Sir Pix-a-Lot revives his Week 13 2008 pledge "I promise not to pick against Florida anymore; they have beat me into submission.")