Straight Up Saturday

OREGON +3 v. Southern California

The Ducks are a long time favorite of Sir Pix-a-Lot and rightfully so – they are 21-12 against the spread since the start of the 2007 season. The Ducks got off to a slow start this year in nonconference (losing to Boise and sneaking by Purdue and Utah) but have come to life and dominated the Pac-10 so far. Oregon has won all four conference games by an average margin of 30 points.

I really like the Ducks this year because they are doing it in all three phases of the game. Their defense is very underrated and is in the top 20 nationally in total D and points allowed and first in the Pac-10 in pass defense. Star DE Rowe has 7 sacks and 3 fumbles forced. The D and special teams have scored 6 TDs so far. Everyone knows about the Ducks’ spread offense and they have been as good as ever this year, averaging over 200 yards rushing per game.

The Trojans have not looked good on defense lately in allowing 27 points to Notre Dame and 36 points to Oregon State in their last two games. USC tends to struggle with running QBs such as Orgeon’s Masoli. USC has also had trouble going on the road in the Pac-10 lately, and Autzen is the toughest venue in the conference. When the Trojans traveled to the Pacific NW earlier this year they lost at Washington (Oregon won there last week 43-19). A strong chance of rain in the forecast should play to the Ducks’ advantage as well.

OLE MISS -4 @ Auburn

Auburn got off to a 5-0 start against a pretty easy schedule and even posted a couple of notable wins. They got six turnovers to beat West Virginia and also won at Tennessee, but since that game Auburn has stunk. They have lost three straight to Arkansas, Kentucky, and LSU by an average of 16 points. QB Todd has looked like the crappy passer that SEC fans are familiar with lately rather than his efficient doppelganger from early in the season.

The Rebels seem to be headed in the opposite direction. They lost their two big games against South Carolina and Alabama, but at least now the pressure is off for them. Ole Miss played probably their best game of the year last week, beating Arkansas by 13. The Rebels’ offense with Snead and McCluster finally seems to be getting on track and their defense has played very well all season. Ole Miss gets a comfortable win here.

CINCINNATI -15 @ Syracuse

Cincy is finally getting their due on a national media level but Vegas is still not making them big favorites, despite their 5-2 record against the spread. The Bearcats should be comfortable traveling to the Carrier Dome, they have won all four road games by an average of 21 points. Syracuse has lost both of its Big East home games by an average of 18 points. ‘Cuse is 77th in the country in turnover margin to Cincy’s 3rd in the nation.

I’m not worried about whether QB Pike will return for this game or not. His replacement Collaros shined against S Florida in the second half running the ball and went 15/17 for 253 yards and 2 TDs last week against Louisville. Bearcats in a route.

DUKE +7 @ Virginia

I don’t think I have ever picked Duke before, but Coach Cutcliff has them playing their best football since Spurrier was their coach. Sr. QB Thaddeus Lewis is one of the best QBs in the ACC – he has 50 TDs to 19 INTs over the past three seasons and is a big guy that is tough to bring down. Duke has played very well against the ACC this year: they lost by 8 to Virginia Tech, crushed NC St. on the road, and beat Maryland at home last week. Last year Duke blew out Virginia 31-3. The Cavaliers are 1-3 at home this year and do not draw much of a crowd these days. Look for the Blue Devils to pull the upset straight up.

IOWA STATE +7 @ Texas A&M

Iowa State is having their best season in years and flying under the radar. The Cyclones have been solid all season – their only loss by more than 5 points was week 2 against Iowa and they are 5-2 against the spread. Last week Iowa State won at Nebraska even though their dual threat QB Arnaud and starting RB Robinson were both injured. Both are expected back this week.

The Aggies are getting a lot of respect for whipping Texas Tech last week, but that is their only strong performance in one and a half seasons under Mike Sherman. A & M is still just 1-3 against BCS conference teams this year and I think they are more likely to flop than carry on the momentum from last week’s big win.