SEC Rolls – Mountaineers Struggle

ARKANSAS +1 v. Texas A&M (in Arlington, TX)

These former Southwest Conference rivals begin a new neutral-site series this year modeled after Georgia-Florida and Texas-Oklahoma. Arkansas leads the series 38-24-3 all-time, but the teams have not played since 1991.

The Aggies are 3-0 but have fattened up on the softest of cupcakes, playing all three games at home against teams that are not in the top 100 nationally. Having gone all the way into October without playing a single decent opponent could be a distinct disadvantage for A&M when they get into their first real game here. Texas A&M has lost 11 of its last 14 games against BCS competition. Mike Sherman has done nothing to inspire confidence so far in his tenure at TAMU.

Meanwhile, Arkansas comes in at 1-2 but has been toughened up in losses to ranked SEC heavyweights Alabama and Georgia. Arkansas showed plenty of offense against the Dawgs, with Ryan Mallett and his big, fast receiving corps putting up plenty of stats. Arkansas simply cannot afford to go to 1-3 and should be intensely focused on this game.

Take the Hogs in my most confident pick of the season thus far.

COLORADO +17.5 @ West Virginia (Thursday)

Colorado beat WV in overtime last year in Boulder so the Buffs are familiar with the Mountaineers’ spread option offense. Colorado has looked bad, but not so awful as to justify this huge line – especially since WV has not looked like world-beaters themselves, losing 41-30 to a fairly average Auburn team in their only BCS competition. The Mountaineers have also committed 10 turnovers in the last two games.

Disregard the ugly loss at Toledo where Colorado had to travel and play on just four days rest. The Buffs got a boost of confidence from their last game, shutting out Wyoming 24-0. Colorado has also been very good in the red zone, scoring on 12 of 12 chances with 10 TDs. Look for the Buffalos to play their best game of the season so far and keep this one close down to the end.

OLE MISS -8.5 @ Vanderbilt

Ole Miss got embarrassed last Thursday against S Carolina and will have had ten days to stew in their juices before matching up with Vandy. The Rebels never should have been in the top 5, but they are a legitimate top 20 team for sure with Snead, McCluster and a strong D line. This is an Ole Miss team that now has the pressure turned off and the motivation to win big turned way up.

The Commodores looked to have turned a corner last year with their first bowl win in decades, but have not shown much this season in their two SEC games (a 23-9 loss @ LSU and a 15-3 loss at home against Miss. St.). Making matters worse for Vandy, their defensive leader, Sr. safety Ryan Hamilton is out for the season and a starting OL is also out for this game. Vandy has had trouble protecting their QB, so look for Rebel DE Hardy to dominate the line of scrimmage.

Assuming a strong Rebels D (they only gave up 285 yards to USC) can hold Vandy anywhere near their 6-point-per-game SEC average, it will be no problem for the Ole Miss offense to cover the spread.

MISSISSIPPI STATE +5.5 v. Georgia Tech

Dan Mullen seems to have the Maroon Bulldogs playing their best football in a while after bringing over his offense from Florida. The team is playing with confidence and the fans are fired up after an oh-so-close loss to LSU last week.

State clearly outplayed LSU, out gaining them 151 to 30 on the ground and pilling up 21 first downs to LSU’s 12. Miss St. also shut down a Vandy team that likes to run it, holding them to just 3 points, so they should have the ability to match up with Tech’s option game.

Last year Tech whipped State in Atlanta, but this game will be played in a rejuvenated Starkville, where it is never easy for the visitor when the cowbells get going.

The Jackets did not look good in their only road game this season, getting handled easily by Miami. One big difference from last year to this year for the Bulldogs is that they can actually possess the ball themselves on offense and score a little bit. Senior RB Anthony Dixon is a stud and TE Green had 100 yards and a TD v. LSU.

SEC teams are 6-2 versus teams from other BCS conferences and 2-0 versus ACC teams. Take the points, but Georgia Tech should be on upset alert here.