Week 4 picks - Forget the Preseason Rankings

TEXAS CHRISTIAN +3 @ Clemson

MOUNTAIN WEST - The Horned Frogs (preseason: #17) continue to have one of the best Ds in the country led by DE Hughes, who already has 5 sacks in just 2 games. TCU has shown that it can win on the road in the ACC, having already dominated at Virginia. TCU also appears to have a distinct coaching edge with Gary Patterson vs. rah-rah inexperienced Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney.

Clemson’s offense has struggled so far this year behind inexperienced QB Parker, who has completed just 47% of his passes and thrown 4 INTs. The Tigers were shut down in the first half by Georgia Tech before Tech started making some big mistakes that allowed Clemson to put up some points. Last week against BC, Clemson could not find the endzone on offense.

Clemson’s best offensive player, RB C.J. Spiller, has been bothered by turf toe and will find it very hard to run against TCU. To make matters worse, five Clemson offensive lineman have missed practice this week with the flu.

Clemson has not beaten a ranked opponent since 2006. Look for the Horned Frogs to win straight up and keep their BCS dream alive.

HOUSTON -1.5 v. Texas Tech

CONFERENCE USA - This is a huge game for Houston (preseason: unranked), who would have a very solid chance of making the BCS if they win. Houston has had two weeks to prepare for this matchup after their big win at then #5 OK St. while the Red Raiders must bounce back after a hard fought loss to Texas on Saturday night. Houston has the added advantage of having former TT assistant Dana Holgorsen as offensive coordinator and former TT QB Cliff Kingsbury as an assistant.

The Red Raiders are 0-14 under Leach on the road against top 15 teams (Houston is #17). Houston would appear to have the defense to match up with Tech’s passing game, as the Cougars have only allowed 177 pass yards per game.

Houston has a big edge in intangibles here, as they have more to play for, are better rested, and are playing at home.

CINCINNATI -16.5 v. Fresno State

BIG EAST - Cincy (preseason: unranked), is on fire on both offense and defense and Sir Pix a Lot is along for the ride at the front of the bandwagon.

Fresno looks non-threatening, as they gave up tons of big plays and yards and over 50 points at home vs. Boise. It is also important to note that Fresno must travel east for this one and kickoff is at 9am Pacific Time.

MIAMI -2.5 @ Virginia Tech

ACC - Va. Tech let me down last week with their pitiful offensive performance against Nebraska, although they were fortunate enough to win when Nebraska had a breakdown in the last minute. Miami (preseason: unranked), is playing with confidence and momentum and has had two extra days to prepare since their Thursday night dismantling of Ga. Tech.

Hurricanes QB Jacory Harris is a major emerging star and probably the best player in the ACC. Its never easy going to Blacksburg but the ‘Canes are not afraid of playing on the road and have already won at FSU. Miami wins so long as they can keep Virginia Tech from making a game winning play on special teams.

OREGON STATE -2 v. Arizona

Pac-10 - Arizona has never really gotten on track under head coach Mike Stoops. This year they are really struggling on offense and will switch starting QBs for this game but play two guys, which is never a good sign. ‘Zona also looked like a bad tackling team against Iowa last week, which is a very bad sign with the Rodgers brothers Quizz and James on the schedule this week.

The Beavers (preseason: unranked), kept it respectable last week against a still-underrated Cincy team. There is no way they lose two in a row in Corvallis. The Beavers have dominated this series over the past decade, going 9-1 against ‘Zona. Make that 10-1.