Week 1 picks - Baby's Got 'Pack

College football gets an extended kickoff this week with games spread over 5 days with the Labor Day weekend. Sir Pix-a-Lot will take you right through the holiday.

NORTH CAROLINA STATE -4 v. South Carolina (Thursday)

Last year NC St. looked disorganized in this game. USC injured their QB and made it a blowout in Columbia. This year Tom O’Brien has his system in place and a star QB in Russell Wilson to run it (17:1 TD to INT in ’08). Early in the season, I like to look for experience on the offensive line and the Pack fits the bill with 5 seniors starting up front.

Meanwhile, Spurrier seems to be burning out as S Carolina spins its wheels under his leadership. The Cocks still lack the QB and WRs to make his offense work (Garcia has been more of a liability than an asset so far – he gets happy feet in the pocket and acts out off the field).

Playing at home with revenge on their mind, I expect the Pack to have a comfortable lead by the half in this one.

OREGON +4 @ Boise State (Thursday)

This should be a thriller and a great way to jump start college football season for fans willing to stay up late on a Thursday. Boise is actually ranked ahead of Oregon in the polls, but the Ducks seem underrated to me. Oregon returns dual threat QB Masoli as well as two 1,000 yard rushers from last year in Johnson and Blount (both averaged over 7 yds/carry).

I don’t see Boise having the kind of defense that can slow down the Ducks’ run game. Oregon isn’t really known for defense either, but if they can just slow down the Broncos a little bit, Boise is just 12-12 since 2001 when scoring 30 points or less.

The Ducks should be focused on getting a win in Chip Kelly’s first game and on getting revenge for last year’s home loss to Boise. Its never easy visiting the Smurf Turf, but with 4 points coming courtesy of Vegas, Oregon should cover even if the Broncos pull out a late home win.

GEORGIA +6 @ Oklahoma State

Okie State sees this game as their national coming out party in their newly remodeled and expanded stadium (60,000 seats – oh my!). National media is tripping over themselves to laud the Cowboys’ star skill position threesome of QB Robinson, RB Hunter, and WR Bryant. There is just one problem: Georgia comes to town a hungry SEC team with a lot more muscle on both lines.

Under Richt, Georgia has played its best football in opponents’ stadiums, going 30-4 on the road dating back to 2001 and 10-2 when the road opponent is ranked. The Dawgs also dominate non-conference games under Richt, going 34-1.

Look for Georgia’s offensive line to push the Cowboys off the ball early and establish a power run game. Next, senior QB Cox will look downfield for AJ Green and freshman TE Orson Charles, big targets that Okie State’s well-below-average D has no answer for. Okie St. gave up an average of 47 points in their four big games last year (all losses).

The ‘Pokes are sure to score a few, but Georgia should be able to really stuff the interior run with best-in-nation D Tackle combo of seniors Jeff Owens and Geno Atkins. Once the Cowboys become one dimensional, the Bulldogs can tee off on the QB and force a few turnovers.

Take the six if you are conservative, but all of T. Boone’s millions and a lame new theme song (http://www.johnmartinlive.com/cowboys-forever/ )can’t save the Cowboys in this one. Georgia wins straight up.

LOUISIANA TECH + 13 @ Auburn

This one has “Vegas trap bet” written all over it with the “name” team in Auburn favored by just under two TDs at home against the “no-name” visitor in La. Tech. Don’t fall for it – Auburn does not have enough offense to be favored by this much and La. Tech is actually a bad matchup for them.

Last year La. Tech beat Missy St. in week one and, as much as Tigers fans will hate to hear it, ‘09 Auburn looks pretty comparable to ‘08 MSU, with a stout D but little to no offense. The strength of La. Tech’s team is an experienced D Line that is led by a future NFL player in DT Smith. Last year La. Tech was one of the top teams in the country at stopping the run, which is bad news for an Auburn team with no known QB or WR. On offense, La. Tech likes to run it and control the clock.

This one has all the makings of a defensive struggle with the Auburn offense, under its third O Coordinator in 3 years, bound to come out slowly. The “real” line should be more like six here – look for La. Tech to keep it close in a snoozer.

MIAMI + 6 @ Florida State (Monday)

Some people seem to think that FSU is going to have a breakout year on offense in ’09 behind QB Ponder. I’ll believe it when I see it. I’m looking to history as a guide in this rivalry matchup. The ‘Canes are 13-7 all time at Doak Campbell stadium.

The last time that FSU beat Miami by more than 3 points was 1999. When these two have played in September, every game has been a defensive struggle decided by six points or less with the total score between 17 and 26. I’ll take the generous spread what looks to be hard hitting defensive slugfest.