Texas Showdown

TEXAS A&M +21.5 v. Texas (Thursday)

Whenever Sir Pix a Lot can get three touchdowns plus to take the home team in a big rivalry game he is going to “jump on it”. A&M has been down for a few years but they are always tough at Kyle Field, where they are 4-1 this season. Texas has been favored every time in this rivalry game for the past decade but the Aggies are 4-1 ATS at home against Texas and won two of those five straight up.

Texas may be slightly relaxed here since they managed to stay ahead of TCU in the BCS and now know they will play Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship next week. I predict that the outcome of this one will not be determined until the fourth quarter.

PITTSBURGH pick @ West Virginia (Friday)

The Panthers bumped their program up a notch with a huge win in this Backyard Brawl rivalry at W Virginia in 2007 to keep the Mountaineers out of the BCS Championship. Pitt is in the top 10, but still seems overlooked at 9-1. Pitt is playing as well as any team in the country with their tough defense and offensive triple threat of QB Stull, RB Dion Lewis, and WR Baldwin.

A whole bunch of trends favor the Panthers here:

• Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Friday games
• Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games
• Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games
• Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS vs. teams with a winning records
.
• Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall
• Mountaineers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. teams with a winning road records
• Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games

The Pitt D has been very effective against W Virginia’s spread option (allowing just 12 points per game in winning the last two years) and this year they get an extra week off to prepare. Pitt wins and sets up a huge showdown with Cincy next week.

RUTGERS -3 @ Louisville (Friday)

Until last week, Rutgers had been one of the hottest teams in the country behind freshman phenom QB Savage. The Scarlet Knights had won seven of eight games including a 31-0 beatdown of South Florida on national tv. Rutgers had even gotten themselves ranked. But then they collapsed at Syracuse last week. That embarrassing loss to ‘Cuse should have Rutgers plenty focused on this game, which should be enough to ensure a win as they are the better team. Last year Rutgers blasted Louisville 63-14.

Rutgers’ major team weakness is protecting the QB (Syracuse had 9 sacks in the game!) but the Cardinals are not very good at pressuring the QB with only 21 sacks in 11 games. Louisville has been really bad this year – they are 1-6 vs. BCS conference teams (with a one point win over Syracuse) – and this will probably be coach Kragthorpe’s last game so the Cardinals should not expect too much fan support for this one. Rutgers has been good on the road, going 3-1 ATS. Rutgers wins going away.

SOUTH CAROLINA +3 v. Clemson

This game will test my theory that an average to below-average SEC team would probably win the ACC if they played in that conference.

The Cocks have lost four of their past five games, but those losses came in some very tough matchups: @Bama, @UT, @ Arkansas, v. Florida. Carolina is 5-1 at home this season and has had a week off to prepare after the encouraging loss to Florida (their only home loss). Clemson has gone just 2-2 on the road and has not faced a defense of Carolina’s caliber since being held to just 10 points by TCU in September.

I think that Carolina’s strong front seven will be able to hold Spiller in check. LB Norwood is not going to go out with a loss to Clemson on his senior day – Cocks win straight up.

MISSOURI -3 v. Kansas (@ Kansas City)

Kansas is mired in a historic slump. Their play has been atrocious and the program is surrounded by controversy. Kansas has lost their last six games and have failed to cover the spread in an amazing eight straight games. After receiving a beating from Texas last week, Kansas players were quoted saying the team is not giving 100% for coach Mangino.

Meanwhile, Mizzou is hot – they have won three of their last four games and averaged 35 points per game in those four. QB Gabbert to WR Alexander has been an unstoppable combination for the past month. The Missouri senior class led by future NFL LB Weatherspoon and WR Alexander can become the winningest class in Mizzou history with a win here. This is a neutral site game but it may feel like a home game for the Tigers considering all the turmoil with Kansas. I expect Mizzou to win fairly easily.