Tiger by the Tail

LOUISIANA STATE +4.5 @ Ole Miss

Ole Miss played their best game of the season last week in blowing out Tennessee. McCluster ran wild and the Rebels generally flashed the playmaking ability that caused some to over-rate them in the top 5 to start the season. I think the result was a bit misleading though since the Vols were clearly distracted by three team members being arrested a couple days before the game.

LSU has only lost two games and those losses came against the top two teams in the country (Alabama and Florida). Still, LSU has not really looked very good in their 8 wins for the most part and this will be a defining game for both LSU and Ole Miss.

I was impressed by the way that LSU went toe to toe with Bama and I think the Tigers D has what it takes to shut down Ole Miss like the Tide did in Oxford. Another key is that LSU gets QB Jefferson back for this game so they won’t have to worry about Lee throwing a pick-six. I think LSU shows up and plays their best game of the year for a straight up road upset.

TEXAS -27.5 v. Kansas

Sir Pix a Lot very rarely gives up so many points, but I can’t resist piling on the Jayhawks while they are down. The first sign of trouble for Kansas came a couple months ago when football players got in two separate fights with the basketball team that overshadows them on campus. Things have since gotten much worse and this week the football players had a meeting with the AD where they complained about Coach Mangino being mean to them (the only specific allegation is that Mangino poked a player in his chest with his finger). Obviously this is not a good sign for team unity.

Kansas has lost 5 straight games and their last 7 games against the spread. Meanwhile Texas has caught fire since the OU game and has whipped its last four opponents by an average of 32 points per game (and 3 of those 4 games were on the road). Texas will want to show off for the BCS and Kansas will fold at the first sign of adversity. This has all the makings of a major woodshed situation.

MICHIGAN +12 v. Ohio State

This is a pure gut feeling pick. The Wolverines have just one conference win, controversy is swirling, and they are approaching an all-time low for the storied program. Still, if they could somehow pull off the upset they could go to a bowl and redeem the season and the coaching tenure of Rich-Rod. I think the Wolverines have too much at stake to lay down at home for the Buckeyes and I see this game going down to the wire. I am tempted to pick a Michigan upset but more likely OSU will break their hearts by winning on a late special teams or defensive play.

STANFORD -7 @ California

Sir Pix a Lot is late getting on the Stanford bandwagon, but better late than never. The Cardinal have really impressed me the past few weeks with their power run offense. Stanford has scored at least 33 points in their last four games and dominated Oregon and USC. It is clear that Pac-10 teams do not much like having to defend a power run game.

Stanford is 5-0 against the spread at home this year. The Stanford defense is a bit slow, but with RB Best out for Cal they can sit back to prevent big pass plays. This one should be close at halftime but look for Stanford to wear the Golden Bears down in the second half and pull away.