Low Tide

TEXAS A&M -2.5 @ Colorado

I have picked against the Aggies this year and am still not all that impressed with them. This is a pick against Colorado much more than for TAMU. It looks like Coach Hawkins has lost his team. After Hawkins’ prediction of 10 wins in the preseason, the Buffs have stunk all year and sit at 2-6. Last week, Colorado got completely dominated at home by a below-average Mizzou team.

Mizzou sacked the Buffs 8 times and held them to -17 rushing yards and Colorado found themselves behind 33-0. Then this week RB Scott (#1 RB recruit in 2008 class and Hawkins’ biggest ever signing) quit the team. Colorado is bad on offense, defense and special teams and the Aggies have enough momentum going to take care of them in Boulder.

UNDER 40 – Louisiana State @ Alabama

Sir Pix a Lot very rarely messes with the over/under, but this one was too good to pass up. This is a classic defensive matchup with Bama allowing just 11 points per game and LSU 12 points per game on the season. LSU’s last four games have all gone under the number and the Under is 6-2 in LSU games this season. Bama’s last 3 games have gone under the number as well.

The Tide have scored just two offensive touchdowns total in their past three games. Bama usually relies on their defense and special teams to score but LSU has only 7 turnovers on the season and also have great kick coverage teams. I also think that LSU’s big defensive backs can tackle Ingram and keep him from running over them for a huge play.

Neither of these teams has the QB play necessary to score much on the excellent opposing defense and both coaches will play it close to the vest and rely on their defenses in this de facto SEC West championship game. I like Bama to win a close battle of the field goals at home, but the Under is the bet here.

FLORIDA STATE +8.5 @ Clemson

Two weeks ago FSU had lost three straight and was down 24-6 in the 3Q at UNC. It looked like FSU was headed for their worst season in memory and Bobby Bowden was going to be run off on a rail. But FSU bounced back, won against UNC and won again last week against NC St. Most importantly for FSU, RB Thomas emerged against the Wolfpack with 186 rush yards. This week, the announcement that Mickey Andrews is retiring should have the ‘Noles D fired up for their best game of the year.

Clemson has posted a couple nice wins and controls its destiny in its dreadful division of the pitiful ACC. That makes this home game for the Tigers exactly the kind of big game that Clemson has choked on and lost year after year. Even if Clemson does come to play, there is no reason to think they will handle FSU. The ‘Noles have only lost by more than 7 once all year (17-7 against S. Florida in September) and have played several teams as good or better than Clemson. The Seminoles will cover the generous spread and I give them a 50/50 chance of winning straight up.

OREGON – 6.5 @ Stanford

The Ducks are dominating in all three phases of the game. They have demolished all five Pac-10 opponents by an average margin of 30 per game and are 6-2 vs. the spread this season. Vegas clearly expects a letdown from the Ducks here but I am not buying it. Oregon might come out slow, but they only need to get the offense clicking in any one quarter to put up a bunch of touchdowns.

I like what Coach Harbaugh has done with the Cardinal and they are 4-2 in the Pac-10. Their record is a bit deceiving though as all four wins are against the bottom four teams in the conference (Arizona St., Washington, Wazzou, and UCLA have a combined record of 4-16 in the Pac-10). In the end, Stanford lacks the overall team speed to keep up with the mighty Ducks.

DUKE +10 @ North Carolina

Apparently it is impossible for the Blue Devils to get any respect from Vegas this season, even though they are 4-1-1 against the spread and have not lost to the spread since week 3. Duke has won three straight ACC games and is 3-1 on the road this year. Here they match up with a UNC team that is 1-3 in the ACC. Sure, their win was last week against Virginia Tech, but the Heels still don’t have much offense. They have scored just 14 points per game in conference play. Take the points, but I like Duke’s chances of pulling another upset this week.