Bowl Week

At this point anyone that knows anything about college football will acknowledge that the SEC is the dominant conference. It is just about impossible to argue with the SEC as having the best elite teams year-to-year: SEC teams are 12-5 in BCS games and have won three straight National Championships and four of the past six.

Still, its actually in the middle of the league where the SEC sets itself apart from every other conference (see for example Georgia and South Carolina’s wins over top 2 ACC teams Georgia Tech and Clemson Thanksgiving week). This strength through the middle has allowed the SEC to go an amazing 19-7 ATS in bowl games since 2006.

Best of all, despite the above, there are still enough SEC haters out there making bets that Vegas does not make SEC teams prohibitive favorites in the bowls. If you just play every SEC team and nothing else you can expect a winning bowl season, but I will share my favorite picks with you here.

ALABAMA -5 v. Texas [BCS Championship, Jan. 7]

SEC teams are 5-0 in BCS Championship games. Every time the SEC team is favored by less than a TD (LSU was even an underdog to Oklahoma in 2003) but every time the SEC team wins and covers. The average winning margin in these five games was 13 points.

I picked Texas to win the NC before the season started, but now that I have seen the teams play all year it is a no-brainer to take the Tide here. If you look at Texas’ resume, it seems that they pretty much made this Championship Game by default in a down year for the Big 12. The ‘Horns only played two games against teams that finished ranked: #20 Nebraska and #21 Oklahoma St. In Texas’ only two games against tough defenses, they managed just 16 points against Oklahoma and 13 points against Nebraska. Big 12 teams are a pitiful 7-16 ATS in bowl games since 2006.

I see this game playing out much like last year’s Florida-Oklahoma Championship Game – the much hyped Big 12 offense gets physically punished and shut down by the SEC defense. Like Florida in last year’s game, ‘Bama will probably play it safe and let their D do the heavy lifting, but I still like the Tide to cover comfortably and win by 10 or more.

LSU +3 v. Penn State [Citrus Bowl, Jan. 1]

Les Miles is prone to bonehead coaching in the regular season, but his LSU teams have dominated in bowl games. LSU is 4-0 in bowls under Miles and won those games by an average of 28 points. Last year the Tigers went to Atlanta and embarassed a Georgia Tech team that seemed to be surging at the time.

Penn State never did anything to impress this season. We can ignore their laughable non-conference schedule and the Nittany Lions went 6-2 in a weak Big 10. State lost at home to the top 2 teams - Ohio St. and Iowa - and did not play 4th place Wisconsin.

Another factor against Penn State is the long 41 day layoff between their last game and the bowl. This is something that has hurt Big 10 teams in the bowls for years and starting next year the Big 10 will finally adjust the schedules to play after Thanksgiving.

I guess Vegas likes Penn State because they have seniors in QB Clark and RB Royster. However, State's offense was completely shut down in their two games against good defenses - Ohio St. held them to 7 and Iowa held them to 10. LSU will be the best defense the Nittany Lions have faced and I expect the Tiger D to control this game and LSU to win by a touchdown.

KENTUCKY +7 v. Clemson [Music City Bowl, Dec. 27]

Clemson finished up on a very sour note with losses to South Carolina and Georgia Tech in their two biggest games of the year. Bowl psychology really favors the Wildcats here as it is not clear that Clemson wants to go up to Nashville and play this bowl in the cold December weather after just missing out on the Orange Bowl.

Kentucky went 5-0 ATS away from home this season. This is a rematch of the 2006 Music City Bowl where Clemson was favored by 11.5 but Kentucky whipped them by 8. Kentucky also won bowl games in 2007 and 2008. I like the Cats’ chances of pulling another straight up upset, but I love their chances of covering.

OREGON -3.5 v. Ohio State [Rose Bowl, Jan. 1]

I will venture out of the SEC for this one game to play my Ducks. I’m sure that Ohio State is glad they are not playing an SEC opponent in their bowl this year, but the Buckeyes still do not match up well with the team speed presented by Oregon. It does not bode well for Ohio State that they lost at home to a USC team that Oregon beat down.

Ohio State is just 2-6 in Rose Bowls since 1970 and has lost their bowl game the last three years running. Like Penn State, the Buckeyes must deal with a 41 day layoff from their last game to the bowl.

Oregon’s offense has been unstoppable in its last two bowl games – the Ducks scored 42 last year against Oklahoma State and 56 in 2007 against South Florida. So long as the Ducks can avoid a bunch of turnovers and cover kicks, they should take care of business in this one and position themselves for a potential run at a National Championship next year.