Undefeated but Only Half as Dominant?
By: John Schroeder
Updated: November 4th, 2009
ATLANTA – Last year the Florida Gators turned an early season letdown against Mississippi into a catalyst for dominating college football. As October turned into November, the 2008 Gators were crushing SEC opponents by an average of 30 points per game including 51-21 over LSU, 63-5 against Kentucky and 49-10 over Georgia.
While the 2009 Gators have managed to stay undefeated, they have looked more beatable than unstoppable. Statistically, Florida’s slip in dominance is reflected by an SEC margin of victory which has dropped by 50% from 30 points per game in 2008 to 15 points per game in 2009.
Because of the Gators inability to put away opponents, they have been passed by Texas in the Vegas Spread Index as the #1 team favored by odds makers. Texas boasts a 20-point margin of victory in the Big XII including back-to-back 41-7 and 41-14 wins over Missouri and Oklahoma State.
This week both Florida and Texas are 35+ point favorites at home. Look for the Longhorns to continue to roll while the Gators look more two thousand and late than 2008.
The Six Claims to #1:
- Favorite of Vegas: Texas – a 36 point favorite against Central Florida this week
- Quality Wins: Texas - wins over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Mizzou and Texas Tech
- Style Points: Texas – averaging a 28-point margin of victory against Div. 1-A opponents
- Hottest Right Now: Texas – followed up Red River Rivalry with two blowout Big XII wins
- Road Warrior: Southern Cal. – road wins at Ohio State and California
- Best Undefeated: Texas – unbeaten in the Big XII South gauntlet
Vegas Spread Index![]() Favorites of the odds makers |
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| # | Team | Spread |
| 1 | Texas | 30 |
| 2 | Florida | 26.5 |
| 3 | Oklahoma | 23.5 |
| 4 | Alabama | 21.5 |
| 5 | TCU | 18.5 |
| 6 | Penn St. | 17 |
| 7 | Oregon | 17 |
| 8 | Southern Cal | 16.5 |
| 9 | Boise St. | 16.5 |
| 10 | Ohio St. | 16 |
Quality Win-Loss Matrix![]() Biggest wins this season |
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| # | Team | Rating | ||
| 1 | Texas (8-0) | 62 | ||
| 2 | Alabama (8-0) | 53.35 | ||
| 3 | Florida (8-0) | 49.78 | ||
| 4 | Iowa (9-0) | 42.8 | ||
| 5 | Oregon (7-1) | 34.38 | ||
| 6 | Georgia Tech (8-1) | 27.23 | ||
| 7 | TCU (8-0) | 24.52 | ||
| 8 | Cincinnati (8-0) | 23.18 | ||
| 9 | Miami (6-2) | 19.8 | ||
| 10 | LSU (7-1) | 19.01 | ||
True Style Points![]() Performance based on margin of victory |
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| # | Team | Rating |
| 1 | Texas (8-0) | 31 |
| 2 | Florida (8-0) | 27 |
| 3 | Oklahoma (5-3) | 24 |
| 4 | Alabama (8-0) | 23 |
| 5 | Boise St. (8-0) | 23 |
| 6 | Oregon (7-1) | 22 |
| 7 | TCU (8-0) | 21 |
| 8 | Cincinnati (8-0) | 19 |
| 9 | Texas Tech (6-3) | 18 |
| 10 | Ohio St. (7-2) | 18 |
Top 25 Heat Index![]() Who's playing the best right now? |
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| # | Team | Rating |
| 1 | Texas (8-0) | 104°F |
| 2 | Oregon (7-1) | 97°F |
| 3 | TCU (8-0) | 91°F |
| 4 | Alabama (8-0) | 90°F |
| 5 | Florida (8-0) | 90°F |
| 6 | Georgia Tech (8-1) | 89°F |
| 7 | Penn St. (8-1) | 88°F |
| 8 | Tennessee (4-4) | 87°F |
| 9 | LSU (7-1) | 87°F |
| 10 | Boise St. (8-0) | 86°F |
Road Warrior Rankings![]() Biggest wins in opponent’s home stadiums |
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| # | Team | Rating |
| 1 | Southern Cal (6-2) | 35.11 |
| 2 | Iowa (9-0) | 33.75 |
| 3 | Florida (8-0) | 27.76 |
| 4 | Texas (8-0) | 27.55 |
| 5 | TCU (8-0) | 24.52 |
| 6 | Cincinnati (8-0) | 23.18 |
| 7 | Houston (7-1) | 21.81 |
| 8 | Texas Tech (6-3) | 20.94 |
| 9 | Alabama (8-0) | 20.82 |
| 10 | Florida St. (4-4) | 19.88 |
Undefeated SoS![]() Unbeatens ranked by strength of schedule |
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| # | Team | Rating |
| 1 | Texas (8-0) | 62 |
| 2 | Alabama (8-0) | 53.35 |
| 3 | Florida (8-0) | 49.78 |
| 4 | Iowa (9-0) | 42.8 |
| 5 | TCU (8-0) | 24.52 |
| 6 | Cincinnati (8-0) | 23.18 |
| 7 | Boise St. (8-0) | 14.68 |
John Schroeder
A nationally recognized speaker in the field of business analysis, John is the author of the award-winning business management book, Beating the Odds – Poker Strategies for Leading Projects and Winning at Work.
John has been writing for Fan Formula since 2007. He holds a Bachelors of Science in Electrical Engineering and an MBA from the Georgia Institute of Technology.
2009
- Experiencing Technical Difficulties
- Undefeated but Only Half as Dominant?
- Where's the Love for the Longhorns?
- Alabama Confirms It
- Thirteen Teams in Fourteen Days
- Texas Separates From the Speed States
- Sunshine State Domination
- How Long Can BYU Remain on Top?
- Dispute at the Top
- Movers and Losers
2008
2009
- Bowl Week
- Championshp Week
- Week 13 picks - Texas Showdown
- Week 12 picks - Tiger by the Tail
- Week 11 picks - Wildcats & Thundercats
- Week 10 picks - Low Tide
- Week 9 picks - Straight Up Saturday
- Week 8 picks - Straight Outta Crompton
- Week 7 picks - Texas Showdown
- Week 6 picks - Road Trip, Road Trip, Road Trip
- Week 5 picks - SEC Rolls - Mountaineers Struggle
- Week 4 picks - Forget the Preseason Rankings
- Week 3 picks - The Bearcat is Back
- Week 2 picks - Return of the Buckasaurus
- Week 1 picks - Baby's Got 'Pack
- Rated for 2009
2008
- Bowl Week
- Week 14 - Time to Step Up
- Week 13 - Lame Ducks, and Beavers
- Week 12 - No Longer Playing Like Freshmen
- Week 11 - Enemy of My Enemy
- Week 10 - SEC Dominance
- Week 9 - Winning on the Road
- Week 8 - Big Names - Little O's
- Week 7 - Buy the Bye
- Week 6 - What Do We Have to Do to Win Big?
- Week 5 - It’s Another Underdog Saturday