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Undefeated but Only Half as Dominant?

By: John Schroeder
Updated: November 4th, 2009

ATLANTA – Last year the Florida Gators turned an early season letdown against Mississippi into a catalyst for dominating college football. As October turned into November, the 2008 Gators were crushing SEC opponents by an average of 30 points per game including 51-21 over LSU, 63-5 against Kentucky and 49-10 over Georgia.

While the 2009 Gators have managed to stay undefeated, they have looked more beatable than unstoppable. Statistically, Florida’s slip in dominance is reflected by an SEC margin of victory which has dropped by 50% from 30 points per game in 2008 to 15 points per game in 2009.

Because of the Gators inability to put away opponents, they have been passed by Texas in the Vegas Spread Index as the #1 team favored by odds makers. Texas boasts a 20-point margin of victory in the Big XII including back-to-back 41-7 and 41-14 wins over Missouri and Oklahoma State.

This week both Florida and Texas are 35+ point favorites at home. Look for the Longhorns to continue to roll while the Gators look more two thousand and late than 2008.

The Six Claims to #1:

  • Favorite of Vegas: Texas – a 36 point favorite against Central Florida this week
  • Quality Wins: Texas - wins over Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Mizzou and Texas Tech
  • Style Points: Texas – averaging a 28-point margin of victory against Div. 1-A opponents
  • Hottest Right Now: Texas – followed up Red River Rivalry with two blowout Big XII wins
  • Road Warrior: Southern Cal. – road wins at Ohio State and California
  • Best Undefeated: Texas – unbeaten in the Big XII South gauntlet
Vegas Spread IndexTM
Favorites of the odds makers
#TeamSpread
1Texas30
2Florida26.5
3Oklahoma23.5
4Alabama21.5
5TCU18.5
6Penn St.17
7Oregon17
8Southern Cal16.5
9Boise St.16.5
10Ohio St.16

View complete index

Quality Win-Loss MatrixTM
Biggest wins this season
#TeamRating
1Texas (8-0)62
2Alabama (8-0)53.35
3Florida (8-0)49.78
4Iowa (9-0)42.8
5Oregon (7-1)34.38
6Georgia Tech (8-1)27.23
7TCU (8-0)24.52
8Cincinnati (8-0)23.18
9Miami (6-2)19.8
10LSU (7-1)19.01

View complete matrix

True Style PointsTM
Performance based on margin of victory
#TeamRating
1Texas (8-0)31
2Florida (8-0)27
3Oklahoma (5-3)24
4Alabama (8-0)23
5Boise St. (8-0)23
6Oregon (7-1)22
7TCU (8-0)21
8Cincinnati (8-0)19
9Texas Tech (6-3)18
10Ohio St. (7-2)18

View complete rankings

Top 25 Heat IndexTM
Who's playing the best right now?
#TeamRating
1Texas (8-0)104°F
2Oregon (7-1)97°F
3TCU (8-0)91°F
4Alabama (8-0)90°F
5Florida (8-0)90°F
6Georgia Tech (8-1)89°F
7Penn St. (8-1)88°F
8Tennessee (4-4)87°F
9LSU (7-1)87°F
10Boise St. (8-0)86°F

View complete index

Road Warrior RankingsTM
Biggest wins in opponent’s home stadiums
#TeamRating
1Southern Cal (6-2)35.11
2Iowa (9-0)33.75
3Florida (8-0)27.76
4Texas (8-0)27.55
5TCU (8-0)24.52
6Cincinnati (8-0)23.18
7Houston (7-1)21.81
8Texas Tech (6-3)20.94
9Alabama (8-0)20.82
10Florida St. (4-4)19.88

View complete rankings

Undefeated SoSTM
Unbeatens ranked by strength of schedule
#TeamRating
1Texas (8-0)62
2Alabama (8-0)53.35
3Florida (8-0)49.78
4Iowa (9-0)42.8
5TCU (8-0)24.52
6Cincinnati (8-0)23.18
7Boise St. (8-0)14.68

View complete rankings

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About Fan Formula

Fan Formula is the first interactive site for creating personalized Top 25 computer rankings. Fan Formula's mission is to revolutionize how fans debate the most talked about questions in sports including: Who is #1 in college football? As you dial in your preferences we crunch the data and display your custom-made Top 25. Each week your Top 25 is updated and sent out, based on the results of Saturday's games.

Fan Formula has a new story to tell each week. Click here to check out this week’s questions and stats. For more information about Fan Formula or to schedule an interview with John Schroeder, please contact Marnie Zambri of Parachute Producers at 404.313.0285 or parachuteproducers@gmail.com.

John Schroeder

A nationally recognized speaker in the field of business analysis, John is the author of the award-winning business management book, Beating the Odds – Poker Strategies for Leading Projects and Winning at Work.

John has been writing for Fan Formula since 2007. He holds a Bachelors of Science in Electrical Engineering and an MBA from the Georgia Institute of Technology.

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