Will the Big XII Tiebreaker Get It Right?

ATLANTA – The Fan Formula team spent Sunday crunching the numbers and identifying the three strongest arguments for OK and for UT as the Big XII South #1.(Note: no compelling metrics-based arguments for TT surfaced during our search.)

The Case for Oklahoma

1. Oklahoma Is the Better Team - In a rematch, Oklahoma, with a Vegas Spread Index of 29, would be about a three and a half point favorite over Texas. Therefore, Oklahoma is the stronger team and should be given a shot at the Big XII title and an opportunity to face Florida or Alabama.

2. Oklahoma has more style points - Fan Formula's True Style Points metric has the Sooners superior to Texas this year 34 to 29.

3. Non-Conference Strength of Schedule - On top of playing in the Big XII, Oklahoma played two Top-25 caliber teams: Cincinnati (the probable Big East champion) and TCU (arguably the best non-BCS team in the country). The Longhorn’s only decent non-conference opponent was Arkansas – the 8th best team in the SEC.

The Case for Texas

1. Overall Strength of Schedule - While Oklahoma got Texas Tech at home and played Nebraska as their chief Big XII North rival, Texas had a much harder road including travelling to Lubbock to play Texas Tech and facing #11 Missouri from the North. Assuming they avoid upsets this weekend, the final Fan Formula strength of schedule ratings will show #1 Texas, #2 Alabama and #3 Oklahoma.

2. "Impressiveness" of the Loss - If there is such a thing, Texas had the more impressive loss. On the road, facing the #7 team in the country, Texas came within a single dropped interception from this conversation never taking place.

3. It’s a Two-Horse Race

• If no one is making a case for Texas Tech, this is really a two-team debate: Oklahoma vs. Texas.
• To decide a two-team deadlock use head to head results.
• Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field by 10 – end of story.

So What Will the BCS Do?

First, don’t overlook this weekend's games. A loss by Oklahoma, Texas or Texas Tech is a distinct possibility and would immediately end the tiebreaker debate. But, if the teams all finish 11-1, the Big XII will go through a formal tiebreaker system landing on the “highest ranked team in Sunday’s BCS rankings” as the South’s entrant to the championship game.

Who will be the highest ranked BCS team? The BCS averages two human polls with the composite of six computer polls and ultimately it will come down to whoever the coaches and media vote for.

There are many experts and sites who project BCS rankings (ask Google), so rather than try to guess how the coaches will vote and whether or not Oklahoma will move up one more spot in any of the BCS computers, we decided to run a Fan Formula Bizarro-World BCS simulation.

As you can see, the Fan Formula Bizarro-BCS likes Oklahoma as the Big XII South #1. To see whether this matches, or is the opposite of, the real BCS we will have to wait until next Sunday.

Fan Formula’s Bizarro-World BCS Simulation

The Fan Formula Bizarro-World BCS Simulation:

• Assumes next week’s games go to form (no upsets)
• Leverages six of the most meaningful computer rankings generated by the Fan Formula engine
• Combines these “BCS-style” with two informal, Fan Formula created human polls