Articles

Experiencing Technical Difficulties

ATLANTA – On Wall Street, technical analysis involves picking stocks based on price charts while ignoring underlying fundamentals. After all, so the assumption goes, everything anybody knows about a stock is baked into its price.

Applying this theory to college football, I am putting out a sell rating on the University of Florida.

Forget Urban Myer, Tim Tebow, the 19-game win streak, and the presumed dominance of the SEC. The “price” of the Gators, as reflected in the weekly point spreads, had dropped consistently throughout the year.

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Undefeated but Only Half as Dominant?

ATLANTA – Last year the Florida Gators turned an early season letdown against Mississippi into a catalyst for dominating college football. As October turned into November, the 2008 Gators were crushing SEC opponents by an average of 30 points per game including 51-21 over LSU, 63-5 against Kentucky and 49-10 over Georgia.

While the 2009 Gators have managed to stay undefeated, they have looked more beatable than unstoppable. Statistically, Florida’s slip in dominance is reflected by an SEC margin of victory which has dropped by 50% from 30 points per game in 2008 to 15 points per game in 2009.

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Where’s the Love for the Longhorns?

ATLANTA – Last year the BCS computer rankings denied Texas a shot at the Big XII title and the potential for a spot in the national championship game. A year has passed and the Longhorns seem to have learned their lesson, going undefeated and rolling up an average margin of victory of 28 points per game.

So what about the computers, have they learned not to underestimate a Texas squad that is 19-1 over the past two seasons?

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Alabama Confirms It

ATLANTA – In the basketball game H-O-R-S-E, the person who originally made a shot must make it again to prove the shot was about skill and not luck. In college football it takes multiple wins over ranked opponents to confirm you are a legitimate contender and not a one-hit wonder.

With their victory over Mississippi, the Crimson Tide became only the second undefeated team to go 2-0 against ranked opponents in 2009.

In week 3, the Miami Hurricanes stumbled in their attempt to make it three in a row falling short at Virginia Tech. Look for Alabama to show the consistency of a champion and add a third Top 25 victory to their resume Saturday night against #22 South Carolina.

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Thirteen Teams in Fourteen Days

ATLANTA – Five weeks into the 2009 season, thirteen teams remain unbeaten. Are these college football’s dominant programs or merely the benefactors of favorable early season scheduling?

Among the thirteen unbeatens, a mere five teams have victories over ranked opponents and none have multiple Top 25 wins. Compare this to the nineteen BCS teams who have faced multiple ranked opponents this season – zero of which remain undefeated.

The ability to consistently beat ranked teams is what separates great teams from the also-rans. Over the next fourteen days nine intra-conference matchups will divide the contenders from the pretenders.

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Texas Separates From the Speed States

ATLANTA – When you are dealing with the college football speed states of Florida, Texas, and California, things can change in the blink of an eye. After week three, all eyes were on the Sunshine State as Tim Tebow and the Gators were rolling, “The U” was back with hurricane-force swagger, and Florida State seemed to have found their offensive rhythm beating BYU 54-28.

But before you could say “return to the glory days”, the wheels came off and the Lone Star State stepped to the forefront. As FSU was being shocked by new in-state rival USF and Miami was being upset by their oldest rival, Virginia Tech, two schools from Texas staked their claims to #1.

The Texas Longhorns turned up the heat Saturday, putting together a balanced attack of running, passing, and special teams to dominate UTEP 64 – 7. Meanwhile, the Houston Cougars came from behind to beat Texas Tech and the Cougars resume now boasts the highest quality wins and the biggest road win of 2009.

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Sunshine State Domination

Blowout wins by the big three Florida schools sent shock waves through the college football leader board this weekend.

The University of Florida remains #1 according to Vegas odds makers, but Randy Shannon’s Miami Hurricanes cemented their case for the top spot based on quality wins.

Off to a blazing 2-0 start, the Hurricanes have amassed the most impressive resume of any team in the country with wins over Florida State and Georgia Tech. Miami’s case was aided Saturday night by the Seminoles, as their in-state rivals dominated former quality wins leader BYU.

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How Long Can BYU Remain at the Top?

Early in 2008, ECU came from out of nowhere to beat a pair of top twenty teams, Virginia Tech and West Virginia, and stake their claim to the #1 Quality Wins ranking.

But the Pirates quickly fell to earth squeaking by Tulane in week 3 and then losing back to back to back against NC State, Houston, and Virginia.

Will BYU follow the ECU model or can they make a championship run deep into the season?

If, and it’s a big if, BYU gets by the Seminoles the schedule turns favorable with games against Colorado State, Utah State, UNLV and San Diego State leading up to the showdown in Provo with TCU on Oct 24th.

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Dispute at the Top

September 6, 2009

Brigham Young. BYU is the hottest team in the country delivering the best season to date thanks to the Cougars’ week one upset of Oklahoma in the new Jerry Jones stadium.

So just how far can BYU go?

Brigham Young has a schedule that is tougher than California, Notre Dame, and many of the Big East contenders.

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Movers and Losers

September 1, 2009

Atlanta - College Football is back and where better to start than in Stillwater for Georgia versus Oklahoma State.

This game has huge mover potential for both teams, with the winner likely to emerge as the #1 team in Fan Formula’s Quality Wins Rankings.

Both teams have tons to prove in ’09.

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First to Worst

January 10, 2009

ATLANTA - For diehard fans of the University of Georgia, the 2008 season can be summed up in the seven words of immortal Atlanta columnist Louis Grizzard, "I don’t want to talk about it."

Rarely has a team been greeted with more promise and excitement than the 2008 Georgia Bulldogs who were ranked #1 by USA Today, AP, and ESPN and featured an offense including two potential Heisman trophy candidates in Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford.

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Will the Big XII Tiebreaker Get It Right?

November 24, 2008

ATLANTA – The Fan Formula team spent Sunday crunching the numbers and identifying the three strongest arguments for OK and for UT as the Big XII South #1.

(Note: no compelling metrics-based arguments for TT surfaced during our search.)

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So How Good Is the Big XII?

September 27, 2008

When the dust settled after Saturday’s pandemonium, the Big XII emerged with three of the top five teams in the country: Oklahoma at #1, Missouri at #3 and Texas at #5.

For fans accustomed to five weeks of one team, USC, and one conference, the SEC, reigning supreme, the sudden emergence of the Big XII leaves many wondering just how good the Big XII is - past, present, and future?

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What Do All BCS Champions Have in Common?

September 20, 2008

2008 marks the 11th season of the BCS. Looking at the numbers, the one trait shared by all ten BCS national championship teams is they all came out week one and played like champions.

Whether beating a top-25 team or dominating a lesser opponent, each and every BCS winner made an immediate statement that they were an elite squad in their very first game. There were no lackadaisical performances, no squeakers against mediocre opponents, no Div I-AA patsies - just ten straight years where the eventual champion took care of business.

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