ATLANTA – On Wall Street, technical analysis involves picking stocks based on price charts while ignoring underlying fundamentals.

After all, so the assumption goes, everything anybody knows about a stock is baked into its price.

Applying this theory to college football, I am putting out a sell rating on the University of Florida.

Forget Urban Myer, Tim Tebow, the 19-game win streak, and the presumed dominance of the SEC. The “price” of the Gators, as reflected in the weekly point spreads, had dropped consistently throughout the year.

More »»

At this point anyone that knows anything about college football will acknowledge that the SEC is the dominant conference. It is just about impossible to argue with the SEC as having the best elite teams year-to-year: SEC teams are 12-5 in BCS games and have won three straight National Championships and four of the past six.

Still, its actually in the middle of the league where the SEC sets itself apart from every other conference (see for example Georgia and South Carolina’s wins over top 2 ACC teams Georgia Tech and Clemson Thanksgiving week). This strength through the middle has allowed the SEC to go an amazing 19-7 ATS in bowl games since 2006.

Best of all, despite the above, there are still enough SEC haters out there making bets that Vegas does not make SEC teams prohibitive favorites in the bowls. If you just play every SEC team and nothing else you can expect a winning bowl season, but I will share my favorite picks with you here.

More »»