Is TCU the Best Team in the Country?

Thursday, September 02, 2010 - 6:34:47 PM

Back in January, when Fan Formula’s Vegas Spread Index first identified Duke as the best college basketball team in the country I kinda freaked out. Duke hadn’t advanced past the Sweet Sixteen in five seasons and I assumed the Blue Devils’ #1 ranking had to be the result of bad data, a glitch in the system, or some bizarro college basketball version of the Notre Dame effect where people bet the program name as if it were twenty five years ago regardless of the strength of this year’s team.

But when I called up my friend Chuck Wagon, a rabid college basketball fan who manages Fan Formula’s data feed, he assured me the numbers were correct and that yes, there was indeed a chance that with their improved front line Duke could be the best team in the country. (I was later able to turn this knowledge into some sweet odds and a nice payday against neighborhood betting legend “Gameboy” who never seems to lose a bet, a card game, or Fantasy anything. He actually laughed out loud in February when I asked for action on Duke to win it all.)

History repeated itself in August, when we fired up Fan Formula’s rankings generator for the 2010 College Football Season and out popped TCU as a preseason #1. I had an initial wave of nausea, but based on my experience with the Blue Devils, I quickly settled down to ask a serious question:

Is it possible the experts in the desert and fans voting with their wallets could actually think TCU is the best team in the country going into 2010?

Before you laugh, remember TCU was a 7 point favorite over the undefeated, #6 in the country, Cinderella golden boys Boise State in last year’s Fiesta Bowl.

The Numbers Behind These Numbers

At the end of 2009, TCU finished 12-1 with the country’s fourth best Vegas Spread Index, a VSI of 21.5. TCU would have been a 21.5 point favorite over the average 1-A football team and would have only been an underdog to three schools: Alabama (VSI 28.5), Florida (VSI 27) and Texas (VSI 22).

As we enter 2010, the Vegas Spread Index has TCU up a half point over last season to a VSI of 22. Is that reasonable?

TCU returns 9 starters on offence including a dark horse Heisman trophy candidate quarterback entering his senior season with a virtually intact offensive line. Plus the nucleus of the nation’s #1 ranked defense is back along with their first string kicker and punter. So yeah, it sounds like they should be at least a half point stronger than last season.

Alabama, on the other hand, lost nine starters off last year’s defense plus their kicker and punter. While they return the majority of their run-oriented offense, given the complete defensive and special teams overhaul in Tuscaloosa, I think it is reasonable at this point to say the Crimson Tide is a touchdown or more worse than 2009 - putting them around 21 and just behind TCU.

In Gainesville, the Gators lost Tim Tebow. Love him or hate ‘em the loss of the 2007 Heisman trophy winner (and the country’s most eligible Christian bachelor according to USA Today) is significant enough to single handedly drop Florida seven points in the eyes of many casual fans. The 2010 Gators land just behind the Crimson Tide in the 3rd spot.

Texas is in the same boat as Florida. Lose Colt McCoy, the winningest college football quarterback of all time, and the Longhorns easily fall below TCU, ‘Bama, and UF.

So if the initial 2010 Vegas Spread Index has: #1 TCU 21.5, #2 Alabama 20.5, #3 Florida 19.5, #4 Boise State 19.5, and #5 Oklahoma 19.5 – what’s the play? If you like what the computers have served up, take a look at TCU’s 15 to 1 odds to win the national championship.

But if you don’t believe the hype, then take your pick of a big blowout for one of the powerhouses not getting enough respect in week one: Alabama -39 against San Jose State, Florida -35 in the Swamp against Miami (OH), or Texas -28.5 at Rice.

BCS Doomsday Scenario

Sunday, August 08, 2010 - 8:42:18 PM

Crank the BCS security alert to red for 2010 because college football is facing a severe risk of BCS implosion this fall.

While the BCS dodged a bullet in 2009 at the end of the Big XII Championship Game, this year the stage has never been more perfectly set for chaos and criticism.

For BCS pandemonium to occur in 2010 only three simple pieces must fall into place.

It all starts with either Boise State or TCU going undefeated. Both the Broncos and the Horned Frogs have near perfect BCS-busting schedules - just hard enough to prove them worthy of a national championship shot, yet easy enough to give them a legitimate chance at running the table. Fan Formula’s numbers show a greater than 56% chance that either the Broncos or the Horned Frogs will complete the regular season undefeated.

Next, the powerhouse teams in the SEC and Big XII need to beat each other up leaving no unbeatens from college football’s two pantheon conferences.

Again the schedule is key in working against the BCS. Would you bet on any of these teams to run the table unscathed?

• Alabama: vs. Penn State, @ Arkansas, vs. Florida, @ LSU, the Iron Bowl, and the SEC Championship Game
• Florida: @ Alabama, vs. LSU, vs. Georgia, @ Florida State, and the SEC Championship Game
• Texas: @ Texas Tech, vs. Oklahoma, @ Nebraska, and the Big XII Championship Game
• Oklahoma: vs. Florida State, @ Cincinnati, vs. Texas, and the Big XII Championship Game

Finally, the Big Ten. The conference that tried to turn the college football world on its head in the off season finally manages to make some waves by sending it’s champion to Arizona on January 10th. Take your pick of Ohio State, Iowa, or Wisconsin but regardless of who comes out on top, our doomsday scenario hinges on one spot in the championship game being locked up by an undefeated Big Ten Champion.

Fast Forward to December 4th - Judgment Day

Peering into our crystal (foot)ball we see an unseasonably warm 70 degree day in the college football capital of the world as Alabama and Florida face each other in “The Rematch” live from the Georgia Dome. Ohio State and TCU have already posted their undefeated seasons while the SEC behemoths have a single loss between them from their October 9th clash in Tuscaloosa.

When Alabama gets their revenge on Florida, the computers, the coaches, and the Harris voters are faced with a choice: undefeated TCU who has been in the top 5 all season or defending national champ Alabama who looks like a juggernaut but has a single blemish from a devastating SEC schedule and two battles with the Gators.

So what’s it gonna be, Ohio State vs. TCU or Ohio State vs. Alabama?

Either way somebody’s not going to be happy. When the voters capitulate and go with the battle of unbeatens and all is said and done:

Will we have determined who the best team in the country is? Nope.

Will we know which team had the best season? Not really.

Will anyone in the South care enough to stay up past midnight on a Monday to see who wins in Phoenix? Zzzzzz…

Will the Rose Bowl selection committee at least throw us a bone with a USC-UF reunion of Lane Kiffin and Urban Myer? Never mind.

Will anything change for 2011? Probably not.

Who’s On the Hottest Hot Seat?

Sunday, August 08, 2010 - 8:26:59 PM

The 2010 season opens with big name coaches in big time trouble. Rich Rodriquez, Ron Zook, Ralph Friedgen, and Dennis Erickson headline a who’s who of hot seat coaches but no one faces a tougher make-or-break year than Les Miles.

While Miles is only three years removed from a national championship the chips are stacked against this riverboat gambler.

LSU is the highest ranked of the hot seat teams but faces the nation’s toughest schedule combining a season long slugfest in the SEC west with a trip to Gainesville, a visit from West Virginia, and opening night matchup with North Carolina in Atlanta.

The Las Vegas Hilton puts the Tigers’ projected wins at a measly 7.5 for 2010 - could the Bayou faithful stand on a seven-win season while Nick Saban continues to shine in Tuscaloosa? - What’s the play?

While the Fan Formula computers are projecting 7 wins for LSU, I don’t buy it for a simple reason: there is no way LSU falls to UNC in the Georgia Done.

The Tigers are 7-1 lifetime on the Georgia Dome’s fast surface dominating high caliber competition in the Chick-Fil-A bowl and the SEC championship game and the Bayou Bengals are simply too big, too fast, and too SEC for an ACC opponent.

Look for the Tigers to parlay a dismantling of the Tar Heels into a 3-0, or even 5-0, start putting the fire Les Miles talk to bed (at least for this year).